This research developed a housing need simulation to quantify the need for affordable housing and identify the supply required to meet the demand for housing in Australia. The report is designed to guide thinking around resource allocation, market monitoring, setting affordable housing targets, housing assistance budgeting and evidence for affordable housing contributions via planning policy.

The research delivers a consistent and replicable methodology for housing need assessment that can be used to inform resource allocation and simulate the impact of policy decisions on housing outcomes.

The results reveal the extent of the shortfall in affordable housing moving forward, and the additional pressure placed on the housing assistance budget due to the growth in households requiring support in the private rental market. Further development of the economic aspects of the model combined with new census data could deliver estimates of housing need at the local government area level.